The CIA’s Predictions From 2000 on the Situation of the World in 2015

Right before George W. Bush became president in 2000, the CIA published a 70-page report on what the world would be like in 2015, and they were correct about a number of things. Business Insider analyzed how many of these predictions had come true as of July 2015.

Large and powerful organizations rather than governments increasingly influence international affairs.

This is especially true in the case of ISIS. However, other shadowy organizations also cross the line between being private and state sponsored. Chinese hackers who are thought to have stolen information about millions of US government employmees are an example of the latter.

Terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and designed to achieve mass casualties.

Sadly, this prediction came true very quickly on 9/11 and the dozens of terrorist attacks on Westerners and others around the word in the years since has only supported this point further.

The world population will grow by more than one billion, to 7.2 billion.

The world’s population is now around 7.3 billion, so this was a strikingly accurate prediction.

Energy resources will be sufficient to meet demand.

This one has come true. US oil production has drastically increased, and the country is likely to become a major exporter of liquefied natural gas.

China’s economy will grow to overtake Europe as the world’s second largest behind the US.

Partially true. China’s economy is larger than that of the US, but by other measures, it is not quite as large as that of the European Union.

Europe will not fully achieve the dreams of parity with the US as a shaper of the global economic system.

Not quite true. Although sluggish at the start of the year, the European economy has recently been picking up steam.

AIDS, famine, and continuing economic and political turmoil means that populations in many [African] countries will actually fall.

False. The population in African rose from 800 million to 1.1 billion between 2000 and 2014.